After a period of recalibration, private equity and venture capital firms are entering 2026 at an inflection point. The gap between firms that adapt and those that don't is about to widen significantly.
The numbers are clear: 68% of investors expect to do more deals next year, AI for investment decisions has more than doubled from 13% to 28%, and fundraising pessimism has collapsed from 34% to just 15%.
Yet this optimism comes with pressure. Extended holding periods continue to test portfolio strategies, competition for deals is intensifying, and AI has moved from buzzword to operational reality.
This creates a new divide between firms that can harness it effectively and those still figuring out their approach.
To understand what's ahead, we surveyed 275 private equity and venture capital professionals and hosted a panel discussion with leaders across the ecosystem: Michael Sias from Northwestern Mutual Future Ventures, Niklas Krusche from Munich-based Armira, and Kegan Kinser from Crunchbase.
Together, they shared perspectives on what 2026 will actually look like—not the headlines, but the reality firms are dealing with every day.
Key findings from our 2026 private capital survey:
- AI for investment decisions more than doubled: 13% → 28%
- 50% of firms rank deal sourcing as their #1 priority (sustained from 2025)
- Fundraising optimism surged: only 15% see reduced opportunity (down from 34%)
- 57% of investors spend 21+ hours per week on deal research
- 47% of firms consolidated to 1-3 core data sources (down from 4-6)
- 68% expect to increase deal volume in 2026
Data consolidation accelerates as AI adoption surges
How private capital firms using AI in 2026
Private equity and venture capital firms using AI for investment decisions more than doubled in 2026, jumping from 13% to 28% in a single year. Firms have moved beyond using AI for productivity. Now, they're using it to make better investment decisions.
How many data sources should PE and VC firms use?
Meanwhile, PE and VC firms are consolidating around fewer data sources. 47% now use just 1-3 data sources, moving away from the sprawling technology stacks that dominated previous years. The "sweet spot" that used to be 4-6 sources is giving way to more focused, integrated platforms.
As Niklas Krusche from Armira explained during our panel, his firm uses tools like Langdoc to build internal assistants that let the entire team access AI capabilities without needing expertise in prompt engineering.
"Everyone can at the click of a button query which industry advisor is the right one for a certain deal," Krusche said. The goal is to make teams more efficient and better informed, and not replace human judgement.
Fewer data sources, deeper AI integration
Firms have moved beyond experimentation. They're consolidating around core platforms that deliver genuine value while simultaneously deepening how AI augments their workflows.
Michael Sias from Northwestern Mutual echoed this evolution, noting that his firm is learning from portfolio companies on the cutting edge of AI tooling.
"They're sort of on the cutting edge of what's latest and greatest because they've got to be scrappy and efficient," Sias said. Larger institutions are integrating AI into existing platforms like Microsoft Copilot, while startups are pushing the boundaries on specialized tools.
AI is becoming essential infrastructure, not a nice-to-have. Firms that treat it as augmentation—helping teams work faster and make better-informed decisions—are pulling ahead of those still treating it as experimental.
This is just one finding from our research. The full report breaks down AI adoption and data strategies by firm size, investment stage, and geography. It reveals some surprising differences in how top-quartile firms are approaching these tools compared to everyone else.
Firms will sustain their focus on deal sourcing efficiency
What is the top priority for private capital firms in 2026?
Deal sourcing for private equity and venture capital firms remains at the top of the priority list, with 50% of respondents ranking it as their number one focus—exactly matching last year's numbers. The shift we saw in 2025, when sourcing jumped from 30% to 50%, wasn't a one-year anomaly. It's the new baseline.
Meanwhile, 68% of PE and VC investors expect to do more deals in 2026. This is a slight moderation from 72% the previous year, but still representing strong optimism. The pullback is less about pessimism, and more about selectivity. Firms are looking for quality over pure volume.
Competition from other private equity and venture capital firms continues to intensify, with 46% now viewing it as a major factor influencing deal activity, up from 42% last year.
As Keegan Kendzer from Crunchbase noted, "Firms are using two or three times the number of external data sources they were using before, and they're looking for earlier and earlier signals—predictive signals."
How much time do investors spend on deal research?
The research intensity required to stay competitive is significant. Our data shows that 33% of dealmakers spend 21-40 hours per week researching deals, while another 24% dedicate 41-60 hours weekly to this critical activity.
That's more than half of all investors spending at least 21 hours per week on research.
With this level of time investment, firms that can automate research tasks and surface relevant opportunities faster gain a real competitive advantage.
But data alone isn't enough. The panel emphasized that relationships still matter, perhaps more than ever. "2026 is going to be a big year for in-person events," Kinser predicted. Showing up, building trust, and differentiating through personal relationships will be key in a crowded market.
Krusche reinforced this point, explaining that while AI and data help identify opportunities, closing deals still comes down to the strength of your relationships and your ability to move quickly. "We still see a huge funding gap in our growth fund," he said, pointing to companies that are too late for venture but not yet ready for majority investors.
Firms that can position themselves as the right partner for those companies—backed by strong data and genuine relationships—will win.
The fundraising window will open, but proving value will define success
There's an article circulating in Europe right now that's making waves. The CEO of EQT predicted that within a few years, 80% of PE firms could become "zombie funds"—unable to raise capital and effectively dead in the water. He reasons firms that don't professionalize their processes will be left behind.
Krusche from Armira brought this up during our panel discussion, and it resonated with the group.
"I think that everyone working within this industry has to think about how they get to the next level and professionalize their processes," he said. "That's one thing where we will lay a huge focus on for next year, because that's going to be a difference maker."
Is fundraising easier in 2026?
Private equity and venture capital fundraising sentiment has undergone a dramatic transformation. The percentage of investors seeing "less opportunity" collapsed from 34% to just 15%—a 19-point swing.
Meanwhile, 53% now see improvement in fundraising prospects, and 32% see conditions as stable (up from just 14% last year).
The window is opening. Yet while opportunity is returning, the challenge of proving fund value has never been more intense.
What do LPs look for when evaluating funds in 2026?
LPs evaluating venture capital and private equity firms are demanding quantifiable evidence of how returns are generated. Simply having a track record isn't enough.
Firms need to demonstrate clear, compelling value creation with hard data: sourcing efficiency metrics that prove superior deal flow, relationship intelligence that demonstrates proprietary access, and portfolio support analytics that show measurable impact.
For VC firms targeting AI infrastructure investments, being able to quantify technical diligence capabilities and network effects in AI ecosystems is becoming table stakes.
Michael Sias added another dimension to watch that could reshape the entire 2026 outlook. He's closely monitoring AI infrastructure buildout and whether the market is getting overbuilt.
"I think that'll be a good indicator of whether our point of view on 2026 changes," he said. If there are signals that AI infrastructure is getting ahead of demand, it could have knock-on effects on valuations across the market—a canary in the coal mine for broader economic shifts.
The firms that will thrive in 2026 are those that can demonstrate clear value creation. This can be through disciplined portfolio support, efficient use of capital, or strategic positioning in high-growth areas.
The fundraising window may be opening, but proving you deserve the capital will be the real test.
What top private equity and venture capital firms are doing differently in 2026
Our panelists were unanimous: 2026 is a year of cautious optimism. The market is recovering, deal activity is increasing, and there are real opportunities for firms that can move quickly and intelligently.
But the competitive bar is rising. As Krusche put it, "You have to professionalize your processes." That means better data strategies, smarter use of AI, stronger sourcing discipline, and more rigorous portfolio support.
To hear the full conversation—including specific AI workflows, deal sourcing tactics, and portfolio strategies for VP and PE firms from our expert panel—watch the webinar recording.
And for the complete data analysis behind all three predictions, download our 2026 Private Capital Predictions Report.
What the webinar and report cover (that we didn't)
We've only scratched the surface here. The full webinar includes the specific AI tools each panelist uses daily (including Niklas Krusche’s internal assistant setup at Armira that lets anyone query industry advisors), Michael Sias’s portfolio company learnings on cutting-edge AI tooling, and Kegan Kinser’s prediction that 2026 will be "a big year for in-person events."
The predictions report goes much deeper with complete breakdowns showing:
- How AI usage patterns differ across firm sizes and investment stages
- The exact time allocation data: why 57% of investors spend 21+ hours per week on research and what top performers do differently
- Fundraising sentiment by geography and firm type, revealing which segments are most optimistic
- Multi-channel AI implementation strategies (vendor solutions vs. custom development vs. hybrid approaches)
- Competitive pressure metrics and how they're reshaping sourcing strategies
If you're trying to figure out where to focus in 2026 (or wondering whether your firm's approach is ahead of or behind the curve) both resources will give you concrete answers with benchmarkable data.
Streamline your private capital workflows with Affinity
The trends shaping 2026, like AI adoption, sourcing efficiency, and portfolio value creation, all depend on one thing: having the right tools to execute at speed.
Affinity helps private capital firms stay ahead by:
- Simplifying outbound sourcing: Affinity automatically captures email and meeting data, creating CRM records for every person and company your firm interacts with. By mapping out your network and enriching records with key details, like relationship strength, last meeting date, and last email, you can quickly find the strongest path to a founder and personalize your messaging.
- Boosting productivity with AI-driven tools: Affinity Notetaker summarizes and transcribes your virtual meetings, so your team can spend more time in thoughtful discussions while having the most accurate insights synced instantly to your CRM.
- Accelerating diligence with Deal Assist: Affinity's conversational AI, Deal Assist, answers your deal-related questions by using the decks, PDFs, notes, and transcripts stored in your CRM. With Deal Assist, you can skip the hassle of sorting through your inbox and spreadsheets and instead focus on progressing the right deals.
Firms using Salesforce can seamlessly integrate these insights into their existing CRMs with Affinity for Salesforce.
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