A data-driven look at the state of private capital

Private capital enters 2026 at an inflection point, and the gap between firms that are adapting and firms that aren't is widening fast.

After years of economic uncertainty, the market is finding its footing. Optimism has returned, but so have expectations. LPs are more selective, competition for quality deals is intensifying, and the bar for proving fund value has never been higher. To understand how firms are navigating this moment, we surveyed nearly 300 private capital professionals across venture capital, private equity, growth equity, corporate venture capital, and accelerators. The data tells a clear story about where the industry is headed.

Three forces are defining who wins in 2026: AI has crossed from experimentation into strategic deployment, deal sourcing efficiency remains the top operational priority, and the fundraising window has reopened, but only for firms that can prove their edge with data.

What Affinity data reveals about the state of dealmaking

Affinity gets a unique aggregate view of investment activity across the industry. Today, the platform is used by more than 3,000 customers across 80 countries to manage deal flow, track relationships, and close opportunities. That scale gives us a ground-level read on what's actually happening, and not just what firms say they're doing.

The 2026 data reveals a market that has moved past survival mode and into a more disciplined, data-driven phase of operation. Firms are consolidating their technology stacks: 47% now rely on just 1–3 data sources to research and evaluate deals, a significant shift from the sprawling multi-tool environments that were common just two years ago. This isn't about cutting corners. It's about getting more signal from fewer, better-integrated platforms.

AI adoption tells the same story. Use of AI for investment decision-making more than doubled from 2025 to 2026—going from 13% to 28% of firms. That's a fundamental shift in investor confidence. As Brian James Murphy, Lead Data Scientist at Salesforce Ventures, put it: AI is about making sure the team has the right information at the right time—not replacing judgment, but augmenting it.

The dual focus for dealmakers right now

Deal sourcing maintains its position as the dominant priority heading into 2026: 50% of investors ranked new deal sourcing as their top focus—flat year-over-year, and a significant jump from the 30% who said the same in 2024. Firms are going on the offensive, and they're doing it with more intention than before.

But sourcing efficiently is harder than it looks. New data shows that one-third of dealmakers spend 21–40 hours per week researching deals, and nearly a quarter dedicate 41–60 hours weekly. That level of time investment makes the case for smarter tooling unavoidable. Firms that can aggregate data, surface relevant opportunities faster, and reduce manual research gain a real competitive advantage—not just in time saved, but in deals seen earlier.

The 68% of investors who expect deal volume to increase in 2026 aren't just being optimistic. Economic outlook remains the dominant factor shaping deal strategy (cited by 68% of respondents, up 6 points from last year), while competitive pressure from other firms is rising too—now cited by 46%, up from 42%. The firms that will win aren't those doing the most deals. They're the ones doing the right deals faster.

The fundraising window has reopened—but the bar is higher

The most striking shift in this year's data is in fundraising sentiment. Just 15% of respondents now say they see less opportunity to raise a fund compared to the previous year—down from 34%. That's a 19-point swing, and it reflects a market that has moved from caution to measured optimism.

But improved sentiment doesn't mean easier fundraising. The challenge of demonstrating clear value creation has intensified, not eased. LPs are navigating their own competing priorities: 38% are allocating to other asset classes, 31% are hesitant to re-invest with capital still deployed, and 27% face higher demand for commits than available capital. Simply having a track record isn't enough to capture returning capital.

The firms winning in this environment are those who can tell a data-driven story about how their returns were generated. They have sourcing efficiency metrics that prove superior deal flow, relationship intelligence that demonstrates proprietary access, and portfolio support analytics that show measurable value creation. As Joe Schorge, Founder and Managing Partner at Isomer Capital, put it: approach people you've actually researched. Be targeted so you can have real conversations.

Whether this year ends up defined by the optimist's story or a more cautious one, the through line is the same: relationship intelligence separates the best from the rest. The firms that can quantify their edge—and demonstrate it to LPs with hard data—are the ones who will define 2026.

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